For the past several years, a low-profile war has been raging between Israel and Hezbollah.
I have published a detailed paper about this quiet conflict at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
My aim was to publish one of the most comprehensive, detailed, and informative public documents on this situation, which is far more extensive than meets the eye.
The low-profile-war is being fought to help delay the next conflict, though a miscalculation carries the potential of achieving the opposite. So far, the risks have been managed with good judgement.
Below is an executive summary of my paper.
In defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended the 2006 Second Lebanon war, Hezbollah and its Iranian patron, with the assistance of the Bashar Assad regime, are filling Lebanon with surface-to-surface projectiles, and aiming them at population centers and strategic sites in Israel.
To forestall this threat, the Israeli defense establishment has, according to media reports, been waging a low-profile military and intelligence campaign, dubbed “The War Between Wars,” which monitors and occasionally disrupts the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah.
This campaign has allowed Israel to reportedly exhibit the extent of its intelligence penetration of Hezbollah and the prowess of its precision-guided weaponry, thus boosting its deterrence, but has not weakened Hezbollah’s determination to expand its vast missile and rocket arsenal.
It also carries the calculated risk of setting off escalation that could rapidly spin out of control.